The 100,000 number nobody’s talking about

By Your Name | Updated: June 25, 2026

⚡ Quick Facts

• Magnitudes: 7.2 and 7.5 (struck 39 seconds apart) [citation:5]
• USGS Death Estimate: 44% chance of >10,000 deaths; 30% chance of >100,000 deaths [citation:1]
• Current Death Toll: 164 confirmed (does not include La Guaira state) [citation:7]
• Hardest Hit: La Guaira state—called a "disaster zone" by officials [citation:7]
• Media Access: Venezuela ranks 159th out of 180 in press freedom [citation:9]

The USGS predicts that the death toll in Venezuela could reach 100,000. But the official count is only 164. The real number is missing because the worst-hit state, La Guaira, is cut off from communication and media access is blocked.

The number 100,000 is scary. It is a big number. The USGS (the US earthquake experts) said there is a 30% chance that this many people could die in Venezuela.

But you are not seeing this number on the news. You are not hearing people talk about it. Why? Let me tell you.

There is a big gap between what the USGS predicted and what the government is telling you. 🧐

What	Number	Source
USGS Worst Case	100,000 deaths	USGS PAGER System [citation:2]
Official Count	164 deaths	Acting President Delcy Rodríguez [citation:7]
Missing Data	?? (La Guaira state)	Government admits they have no numbers from there [citation:6]

Why is the USGS saying 100,000 people could die?

The USGS uses a system called PAGER. It looks at the size of the quake, the depth, and most importantly, the type of buildings. If buildings are weak, more people die. Venezuela has many old, weak buildings.

The USGS has a special computer program. It is called PAGER. It looks at the earthquake. It looks at the population. And it looks at the buildings.

Experts say the PAGER prediction is often "quite close" to the real number [citation:3]. It is not just a guess. It is science.

Venezuela has many buildings made of bricks and mud. They are not strong. They break easily in earthquakes [citation:14]. This makes the death number go up.

So, the USGS saw the 7.5 quake. They saw the weak buildings. And they said: "This could be really, really bad." 🤯

Where are all the dead bodies if the number is so high?

The bodies are in La Guaira. It is a coastal state north of Caracas. The government says it is a "disaster zone" and a "true tragedy". But they cannot get the numbers out because the phone lines are down and the airport is closed.

Let me tell you about La Guaira. This is the place that got hit the hardest [citation:7]. The acting President of Venezuela, Delcy Rodríguez, called it a "true tragedy" [citation:7].

She said the death toll of 164 does not include any numbers from La Guaira [citation:6]. Why? Because the communication lines are down. The airport is also closed [citation:1].

💡 My Analysis: If you cannot count the dead in the worst-hit area, you do not know the real number. The 100,000 number is not fake. It is a warning. But Venezuela’s media blocks make it impossible to verify the disaster on the ground, so the true scale of this tragedy is being hidden. [citation:9]

We have seen videos of La Guaira. A 10-storey hotel is completely gone. It is just rubble [citation:5]. Buildings are flattened. 🤯

If a 10-storey hotel can fall, imagine what happened to the small houses. The ones made of mud and brick. The ones where poor families live.

Also, this was not just one quake. It was a "doublet". Two big quakes hit 39 seconds apart [citation:13]. The first one broke the buildings. The second one finished them off.

The United Nations is also worried. They are asking Venezuela to unblock the internet and media. They say it is a "matter of life and death" [citation:9].

So, why is nobody talking about the 100,000 number?

Because the information is stuck. The government cannot count the dead in La Guaira. They are not letting journalists in easily [citation:9].

Until we see La Guaira, the real number is a mystery. The USGS says it could be 100,000. We must remember this number. It is the one nobody is talking about.

Stay safe. And stay informed.